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Government contract awards.
The ones that move stocks.

ContractPulse monitors US federal procurement and UK government contracts every day. When a publicly listed small company wins a contract large enough to matter to its finances, you hear about it the same day.

~25–30 alerts per year. Highly filtered. No noise.

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Join the waitlist. Free during the pilot. No card required.

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How this started

"I saw someone on TikTok claiming you could make money from government contracts. I didn't believe them. So I tested it properly."

The claim keeps circulating: when a small listed company wins a government contract, the stock moves. It sounds plausible. It also sounds like the kind of thing that gets repeated because it sounds right, not because anyone has actually tested it.

So I ran the experiment. Four years of public procurement data — USASpending.gov for the US, Contracts Finder for the UK. Matched supplier names to stock tickers. Applied a standard event study methodology: market model, 120-day estimation window, cumulative abnormal returns calculated for each contract award date.

Six hypotheses tested. Two confirmed. The rest — NHS contracts, Canadian federal procurement, SBIR grants, UK seasonal gates — failed to produce a reliable pattern. The two that passed did so consistently, at multiple thresholds, across 280+ events.

The finding held up. ContractPulse is the product built on that research.

What the data shows

Backtest period: January 2022 – April 2026. Both markets tested independently.

+2.45%

US average CAR at t+3
October–December gate, ≥5% materiality (p=0.082)

+3.85%

US average CAR at t+5
October–December gate (p=0.026)

+2.22%

UK average CAR at t+3
AIM-listed, ≥3% materiality (p=0.045)

280+

Qualifying events
Across US + UK, 2022–2026

The materiality filter — contract value as a proportion of the company's market capitalisation — is the key variable. The signal strengthens as this ratio rises. A £1M contract to a £500M company is noise. The same contract to a £20M company is news.

What the data does not prove

Transaction costs are not modelled. Bid-ask spreads on micro-cap and small-cap stocks typically run 0.5–3%, which narrows or eliminates the margin. These are average returns across a basket — individual events vary considerably.

The backtest covers a single historical window (2022–2026). Past patterns do not guarantee future results. This is an information service, not a trading system.

How it works

1

Monitor daily
USASpending.gov and UK Contracts Finder are checked every day for new contract awards.
2

Filter for materiality
Each award is matched to a listed company and the contract value is calculated as a percentage of market capitalisation. Only awards above the materiality threshold are passed through.
3

Alert the same day
You receive an alert with the company name, ticker, contract value, awarding department, and the materiality ratio. Roughly 25–30 alerts per year across both markets.
4

You decide what to do with it
ContractPulse provides intelligence. All investment decisions are yours. We do not provide financial advice.

Join the waitlist

ContractPulse is in the final stages of development. The first live alert season runs October–December 2026 for US contracts, with UK alerts year-round. Waitlist members get free access during the pilot period.

Important information

ContractPulse is an information service. It provides alerts about government contract awards to publicly listed companies. It does not provide financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals.

Past patterns identified in backtesting do not guarantee future results. The prices of investments can go down as well as up. You may get back less than you invest. All investment decisions are made solely by you and at your own risk.